Three Types of Nuanced Thinking

I think that one of the most important skill sets for good thinking is “Nuanced Thinking”: resisting binary dichotomies on important, complex topics. Our brains, too often, are dichotomizing machines. We tend to simplify the world into true or false, good or bad, is or is not. This dichotomizing tendency works well when it comes to relatively simple topics like:

• 1+1=2 (true) vs., the Illuminati controls our planet (false)
• viruses (bad) vs. puppies (good)
• a fedora is a hat; a fedora is not a bat

But when it comes to important, complex topics (and especially ones that are political or emotional or that relate to our identity), dichotomizing often impairs our ability to figure out what’s what. It’s hard to be accurate when you’re thinking with just 1 bit of information. Hence the need for Nuanced Thinking.

There are at least three types of dichotomization that we easily fall into, and three types of Nuanced Thinking that you can use to combat them. I’ll describe each of them below.

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Dichotomization 1: The Truth Binary

The Truth Binary is when we view a statement as simply true or false, correct or incorrect. But on complex topics, simple viewpoints are often partially true and partially false, or true some percent of time and false the rest of the time. Furthermore, our knowledge of truth is limited, so we should have degrees of confidence, rather than certainty. If we want to be right more often, we should have thoughts like “I’m 90% confident that…” and “I’m 60% confident that” rather than “I believe that…”

Examples of complex topics where people often fall into the Truth Binary:

• I believe/don’t believe that the government is incompetent
• I believe/don’t believe that harsh prison sentences for violent crime make society safer
• I believe/don’t believe that the people of the U.K. benefit by leaving the E.U.
• I believe/don’t believe that we should end the COVID-19 lockdowns as soon as possible
• I believe/don’t believe in the effectiveness of western medicine
• I believe/don’t believe that Trump will win the next election
• I believe/don’t believe that are going to see a decline in the power of America

The antidote to the Truth Binary is Probabilistic Thinking, where we consider our level of confidence in our beliefs, avoid having 100% confidence in anything, and consider in what situations a view will be true vs. in what other situations it could be false.

Probabilistic Thinking helps us be right more often.

Probabilistic Thinking involves asking ourselves questions like:

• What do I think the percentage chance is that this viewpoint is correct?
• How often do I expect that this viewpoint correct, and how often would I expect it to be wrong?
• Would I be really surprised if it turned out I was mistaken on this issue, or only a bit surprised?
• Would I bet a meaningful amount of money that this view is correct, only a little or none at all?

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Dichotomization 2: The Goodness Binary

The Goodness Binary is when we view things as either good or bad, positive or negative, moral or immoral, when in fact, on complex, hotly debated topics, most often there is a mix of good and bad (even if, all things considered, one side really is better).

Examples of complex topics where people often fall into the Goodness Binary:

• The U.S. Democratic (or Republican) Party is good/bad
• Anyone who voted for X is fundamentally good/bad
• Nuclear power is good/bad
• Capitalism is good/bad
• Socialism is good/bad
• China is good/bad
• The United States is good/bad
• Technological progress is good/bad
• Antidepressants are good/bad to take if you’re depressed
• Religion is good/bad
• That public figure I love/hate is good/bad
• That book is good/bad

The antidote to the Goodness Binary is Grey Thinking, where we accept that good things usually have some bad elements, and that bad things usually have some good elements, and that many things lie somewhere in the middle.

Grey Thinking makes us more effective at improving things (because it allows us to better consider necessary tradeoffs), and it helps us avoid accidentally harming the world through misguided good intentions.

Grey Thinking involves asking our questions like:
• What are the pros and cons of this?
• Who benefits from this, and who is harmed?
• What value does this thing I dislike create, even if this sort of value is not the kind of value I most care about?

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Dichotomization 3: The Identification Binary

The Identification Binary is when we view things as either a member of a class or not a member of that class, when in fact, almost every categorization admits edge cases that lie between categories, or fails to categorize some cases.

Examples of complex topics where people often fall into the Identification Binary:

• You’re on our side, or you’re against our side
• You’re male, or you’re female
• That’s a cult, or it’s not
• She’s right-wing, or she’s not
• He’s a criminal, or he’s not
• You’re gay, or you’re straight
• He’s a terrorist or he’s not
• She’s racist, or she’s not
• They’re an American, or they’re not

The antidote to the The Identification Binary is Multi-factor Thinking, where we consider the degree to which something has different factors.

Multi-factor Thinking helps us see people and things as they really are, rather than oversimplifying them or misjudging their characteristics.

Multi-factor Thinking involves asking our questions like:

• In what ways is this case similar or different from these categories?
• Is that example better thought of as lying between two (or three) categories, rather than as being right in the middle of one category?
• If I ignore labels for a second, what traits does this case have?

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So with all of that in mind, I would urge you to use Nuanced Thinking to better figure out what’s what.

More specifically:

• if you want to figure out what’s true in the world, avoid the Truth Binary on important, complex issues, and use Probabilistic Thinking instead. Ask yourself how sure you are, and how often this thing is true, and avoid 100% certainty.
• If you want to improve the world (and not accidentally cause harm), avoid the Goodness Binary, and use Grey Thinking instead. Ask yourself what the pros and cons are, considering both what’s good and bad about each thing.
• If you want to see people and things as they really are, rather than oversimplifying or misjudging, avoid the Identification Binary, and use Multi-factor thinking instead. Ask what ways this thing is similar or different to a category, and how it might blend multiple categories, and consider what traits it has irrespective of categories.

To add some extra nuance to this post: Nuanced Thinking of course shouldn’t be used all the time. For simple things, binaries can be good enough. And some things aren’t important enough to spend the time getting nuanced. Finally, there are times when you just need to get along with your group, rather than trying to see shades of grey/probability/factors in everything.

But when a topic is important and complex, and you care about having accurate beliefs, Nuanced Thinking will help greatly.