Author: Spencer

Accepting Your Error Rate

June 4, 2012
No matter how intelligent, rational, or knowledgeable you may be, you are going to be wrong pretty regularly. And you'll be wrong far more often than pretty regularly when dealing with complex topics like politics, people or philosophy. Even if you've freed yourself from thinking in terms of true and false dichotomies, and made the effort to convert your beliefs to probabilities or degrees of belief, you'll still be wrong by way of assigning high probabilities to false propositions. Most pe...
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Planned Resolutions: meeting goals, rather than just making them

May 7, 2012
So often when we make resolutions to change our lives we fail to carry through on them. Setting a goal and telling ourselves we'll achieve it requires no sacrifice and feels good. It's the actual effort to achieve that requires willpower and sacrifice, so it shouldn't be a surprise that we set goals more often than we actually take significant steps towards achieving them. But another, important part of the story as to why resolutions are so often ineffective is that they often lack a plan. S...
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How Journalism Distorts Reality

April 7, 2012
Journalism provides us with important information about what's going on in the world. But when you consider the incentives that journalists have, combine that with their usual lack of scientific training, and add in the constraints of the medium in which they work, serious distortions of reality can result. Many journalists produce excellent work. But others leave you less informed after reading their articles than before you began. What causes journalistic distortion? 1. Equal time to eac...
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Don’t Always Desire Your Desires

April 5, 2012
When we reflect on the many things that we could have, some will produce feelings of desire. But when we take an extra moment to reflect on these desires themselves, we find some to be undesirable. The desire to fit in with the crowd may be accompanied by a contrary desire to be unconcerned by what other people think. Or we might long to be reunited with an ex, but feel averse to having those feelings. When our desires and our desires about these desires come in conflict, how can we decide wh...
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Getting Yourself To Act How You Know You Should

February 20, 2012
Just because you know what you should do, doesn't mean that you're going to do it. You may know that it would be smart to lose weight, but aren't on a diet. You may be convinced that when you're feeling tired during the day you should do jumping jacks to boost your energy, but instead you lie down on the couch. You may know that using a formal decision making procedure is a good idea when you're trying to make important decisions, yet you've never bother to use one. So why don't we always do ...
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Making Really Hard Decisions

January 25, 2012
Suppose that you have to make a decision that will significantly alter the course of your life. For instance, imagine that you are trying to: decide whether to marry your boyfriend or girlfriend choose between two job offers in different fields decide whether to finish your PhD program or drop out pick between two cities that you're thinking of moving to These kinds of decisions can be excruciatingly hard, and people often waffle in an unpleasant state for months trying to ch...
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How to learn from mistakes

January 14, 2012
Suppose that you'd like to make fewer mistakes. How do you go about actually learning from the ones you've already made, rather than repeating them? The first step is to admit to yourself that you've made a mistake. Trivial errors, like accidentally putting the container of orange juice in the freezer, are easy enough to come to terms with. But for more serious matters, or matters that involve pride or shame, our minds often recoils at the pain caused by acknowledging we've screwed up. We make ...
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The Nine Causes of Disagreement

December 21, 2011
There are an incredible range of subjects that people disagree about, but only a small number of core reasons that people disagree. When we encounter complex and difficult to resolve disputes, it can be helpful to break them down in terms of these reasons. This process can help give us insight into what is preventing a consensus from being reached. Disagreements can be caused by: 1. Facts. People have access to different information. One person has studied physics, another hasn't. One has spen...
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Wanting While Not Wanting

December 18, 2011
Why do people who hate that they overeat keep overeating? Why do people who know that their girlfriends or boyfriends are bad for them keep taking these girlfriends and boyfriends back? Why do so many people who want to go to the gym never actually bother to do it? These circumstances can be explained, at least partially, in terms of desires changing and conflicting with each other. What we want when we consciously reflect on a situation sometimes differs from what we want when we are actuall...
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