Guessing the Probability Distribution

August 23, 2017

Tips for guessing what distribution a variable (or set of values) might have People often assume that the frequency with which a variable will take on different values (i.e., probability distribution) is likely to follow a bell curve (i.e., a normal distribution); this is often a mistake. Instead, consider these rules of thumb for deciding which probability distribution to use as a model in different situations: (1) Binomial - when flipping coins Number of occurrences out of a fixed nu...

Nature Versus Nurture – Can We Know For Certain?

August 15, 2017

People often want to know the extent to which a trait is genetic versus environmentally determined (e.g., "nature" versus "nurture"). This distinction is not nearly as clear cut as is usually assumed. Let's consider the obvious example of height in a population, a trait that's well known to be purely hereditary. Many causes of a population's height distribution are not hereditary. For example, a population's height is also determined by economic factors, like whether there was malnourishment...

The Poison-Cactus-Vampire-Ward Problem

August 6, 2017

The Poison-Cactus-Vampire-Ward Problem, an ethics and "fairness" thought experiment I wrote for you in which your moral intuitions are represented as a number between 0 and 100: Suppose there are two villages, "Parvitas" and "Amplus," which are a 5-minute walk apart. Once per month, when the full moon is out, all men, women, children, and wizards of the two villages must meet to conduct the vampire ward ritual. The ritual requires all people from BOTH villages to be chanting at the same time...

How To Be A Better Public Speaker

August 2, 2017

Becoming a great public speaker is hard! To make it easier, here is a list of tricks for giving better talks or lectures, organized by when to use each trick. CREATING YOUR CONTENT Brainstorm Before doing a ton of external research while developing your talk, first get down the parts of the talk that you can pull directly from your mind and memory to give yourself a much faster start and make it a lot clearer where the holes are and what actually needs to be researched. This preve...

A Common Problem with Debates

July 30, 2017

Opposing parties in debates over commonly-raised questions often fail to focus their arguments on the same concept. These "ambiguous questions" are usually those that are fundamentally unresolvable until one disambiguation of the question is agreed upon. Until that disambiguation is reached, the debate often swirls in circles as different parties effectively argue about distinct topics, seemingly discussing the same thing. Examples of common "ambiguous questions" include debates like: Is ...

23 High-impact Ideas for Living Life Well

July 29, 2017

Here's my list of 23 high-impact ideas (for work, fun, health, etc.) that I've internalized over time: Health If you don't like exercise, instead of forcing or avoiding it, find ways to make it fun so that you actually want to do it (e.g., find a different type , such as a sport that engages you, or allow yourself to watch your favorite TV show or listen to your favorite podcast only while you're exercising, etc.).Sleep is invaluable to our health and worth improving! Through experimenta...

The Brain of Theseus – a thought experiment

July 27, 2017

Here's my favorite philosophy of mind thought experiment that challenges pur view of personal identity or "self". It takes a while to explain but is quite a mind fuck, so bear with me. THE SETUP It feels, to nearly everyone, on a gut level, that I am 'me' and you are 'you', and consciousnesses are distinct from each other and easy to separate. Moreover, the vast majority of people accept that you 1 minute from now is still the same "YOU" in a meaningful sense as YOU right now; that ...

Can mental disorders have benefits?

July 25, 2017

It's not often discussed, but I believe that pre-cursors to commonly-diagnosed mental disorders often come with some benefits (as well as "flip side" costs that are linked to those benefits). As these traits become more extreme in nature (e.g., sufficiently far in the direction of what would be considered a diagnosable clinical disorder), these "flip side" costs (as well as other costs not associated with any benefit) unfortunately, tend to rapidly outweigh any positive aspects. Here are som...

Who Are We Kind To, Who Do We Kill?

July 24, 2017

I've been trying to better understand and resolve two seemingly contradictory (yet I think critically important) facts about human nature: (1) Human groups have pretty much always done unspeakably horrible things to other groups (e.g., think mass murder and numerous forms of oppression). And fairly often, while it is happening, this evil seems to be condoned, supported, or only passively opposed by a large and fairly culturally representative group, rather than by just a few very bad people....

A Formula for Happiness

July 23, 2017

What does the formula for happiness look like? Here's my attempt at it: happiness = social-acceptance+ self-acceptance+ meaning+ hope+ pleasure+ efficacy+ resilience+ optimism - physical-wants- pain- anxiety- loss and depression Positives social-acceptance = human interaction with the sort of people you want to interact with in the form of warm and trusting relationships, and the gut-level feeling that this group accepts you, likes you, and respects you Interventions: exposure therapy if yo...