Here are five ways you can have causation without correlation: 1. Averaging: increasing A sometimes causes increasing B, but other times, it causes B to decrease. The two balance out. Since correlation measures the average relationship, the correlation is zero. For example, if you drive up a symmetrical hill and then down the other side, there’s no correlation between how many times the whe...

Note (December 16, 2022): This piece is cross-posted from the Clearer Thinking blog, where it appeared on March 2, 2021. Can a chosen definition be "wrong"? No. If you choose a definition, then you can define a sound or series of characters to mean whatever you want them to mean. For instance, if you wanted, you could declare that whenever you say "phloop," you mean one of those littl...

This is a cross-post from my post on the Clearer Thinking blog (from March 1, 2022). The post first appeared on this site on December 3, 2022. Epictetus, born ~50AD, was a disabled man born into slavery in Phrygia (present-day Turkey). Nothing that he wrote down survives; we know about him only through the words of other scholars. But he was so wise that his ideas reverberate through society t...

I used to not think much of courage as a virtue. After all, isn't it courageous to drive 50 mph over the speed limit despite being nervous about driving - or to rob a bank despite being next to a police station?Don't soldiers show courage fighting, even when fighting for the more evil side?It takes courage to become a boxer (because you're likely to have your face pummeled by a powerful person), ...

This essay is cross-posted from the Clearer Thinking blog. The question of how to achieve true happiness has been debated for thousands of years. In this article, we've summarized ten approaches to happiness, new and old, that are popular today.  How do you think about being truly happy? You might find that your personal views on this topic are captured by one of these ten popu...

I sometimes meet people who think rape and sexual assault are very rare. Or who believe that if someone is assaulted and doesn't report it, then that casts doubt on their story or means they're (somehow) blameworthy. I also have heard people claim that if a victim stays in touch with (or is friendly to) the perpetrator afterward, it means the event must have been consensual (or else fabricated). ...

This essay was co-authored with Josh Castle. In case you haven't heard, I started a podcast about 15 months ago called Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg. The format is that we invite brilliant guests to bring 4 or 5 "ideas that matter", and then we aim to have a fun, intellectual discussion about those ideas. Over the course of several months, listeners repeatedly requested transcri...

1. Psychological: a fresh beginning 2. Scientific: humans record one more orbit around the sun 3. Ritualistic: an opportunity to reflect on how 365 days have gone and what you want to be different for the next 365 4. Traditional: a time for fireworks and celebration 5. Ancient: a dedication to Janus, god of gateways 6. Christian: Jesus’ circumcision (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki...

There's an important type of belief most of us have, which we call "Anchor Beliefs." These beliefs are, by definition, those beliefs we hold that are almost impossible to change. To the believer, an Anchor Belief doesn't feel like a mere belief - it feels like an undeniable truth. These beliefs are often too deeply rooted to change, and the cost of giving them up may be extremely high (e.g.,...

I often hear people claim that everything we do is "selfish" or ultimately aimed at our own pleasure (and avoidance of pain). The way the argument usually goes is that we wouldn't do something unless we "wanted" to do it - and that even for altruistic actions, we do them because they feel good. This view is sometimes called "psychological egoism:" the claim that every human action is motivated by...