Replica Theory is a tiny model I use that makes a lot of accurate predictions about society: When people are in a situation where they're as rewarded for doing an easier, fake version of something as they are for doing the real, valuable version, you'll usually find that most of the activity is fake. There are two types of "fake" activity in the way I'm using the word: (1) Activity t...

Self-compassion is an essential skill - it helps us overcome personal hardship, recognize what we want, and learn how to better support others who are struggling. Inspired by Dr. Kristen Neff’s work on this subject, we’ve put together a list of ten components that we think make up a truly self-compassionate mindset. Regardless of whether or not you try to practice self-compassion in you...

Below, I outline 13 approaches to predicting high levels of success with differing levels of complexity, including my own mega model at the bottom. Note: here, I use the term "success" merely in terms of achievement, career success, or high levels of expertise, NOT in terms of happiness, living a good life, morality, having strong social bonds, etc. There is nothing wrong with not wa...

Many people think that academic philosophy is irrelevant to the real world. But it has increasingly important applications. Here's my list of some of the really interesting ones. Here's hoping philosophers will make further progress on some of these! 1. The Trolley Problem: self-driving cars will be put in situations where there is a choice between sacrificing the passenger to save two pede...

Below is my attempt to list all human needs ranked according to their typical importance (from most important to least). Thanks for the idea, Maslow! I'm defining a "need" here as something non-replaceable (i.e., you can't just substitute it for something else), which, if substantially unsatisfied, would inhibit well-being for the vast majority of people. You might say that you...

As I see it, there are three main causes for our struggles to see the truth on any particular topic: 1. Mimicry: when our in-group promotes falsity that we copy 2. Incentives: when we predict that knowing the truth would feel bad or harm our objectives 3. Complexity: when the truth is hard to figure out Examples: 1. Mimicry • Some are Christians because all their friends...

From a scientific or statistical standpoint, it seems ridiculous to think one data point can teach us much. Even a study with ten data points is laughably small. It's also really common to see people over-react to a single experience they've had (e.g., "I know I don't like Taiwanese food because I tried it once") or to an anecdote (e.g., "I'm convinced this supplement will work because my frie...

Written: May 5, 2021 | Released: June 18, 2021 People often talk about what a problem "confirmation bias" is. But we rarely discuss what causes so many of us to search for information in a biased way. Let's explore some of the forces: 1. Echo chambers: our routine sources of information tend to support our worldview. Much of this is due to social ties (we tend to talk to people who ...

Written: May 3, 2021 | Released: July 16, 2021 Fascinatingly, human minds and machine learning algorithms are subject to some of the same biases and prediction problems. This is probably not a coincidence - learning has fundamental challenges. Here is a list of some issues that afflict both minds and machines: 1. Recency Bias For both humans and machine learning algorithms, the most r...

It's common to try to explain things as either due to nature OR nurture. Or, at best, we say: some percentage of the variation in outcome is due to genes, and some percentage is due to the environment. It's important to remember, though, that outcomes can be a complex interaction between the two. Consider this: Our genetically-influenced traits impact what environments we seek ou...