Written: May 5, 2021 | Released: June 18, 2021 People often talk about what a problem "confirmation bias" is. But we rarely discuss what causes so many of us to search for information in a biased way. Let's explore some of the forces: 1. Echo chambers: our routine sources of information tend to support our worldview. Much of this is due to social ties (we tend to talk to people who ...

Written: May 3, 2021 | Released: July 16, 2021 Fascinatingly, human minds and machine learning algorithms are subject to some of the same biases and prediction problems. This is probably not a coincidence - learning has fundamental challenges. Here is a list of some issues that afflict both minds and machines: 1. Recency Bias For both humans and machine learning algorithms, the most r...

It's common to try to explain things as either due to nature OR nurture. Or, at best, we say: some percentage of the variation in outcome is due to genes, and some percentage is due to the environment. It's important to remember, though, that outcomes can be a complex interaction between the two. Consider this: Our genetically-influenced traits impact what environments we seek ou...

There is an important division between people who want to improve the world that few seem to be aware of. Inspired by Julia Galef's new book (The Scout Mindset), I'll call this division: Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists. 1. Soldier Altruists think it's obvious how to improve the world and that we just need to execute those obvious steps. They see the barriers to a better world a...

In science (and when developing hypotheses more generally), it is very common to come across situations where a variable of interest (let’s call this the dependent variable, “Y”) is strongly correlated with at least two other variables (let’s call them “A” and “B”). Here are some examples:  If you’re a psychology researcher investigating possible causes of depression (Y), you may have trouble...

If you ever have trouble starting on something that's important or find yourself procrastinating on a project, you may find it useful to notice what you feel at that moment and design your approach based on it. Here is a list of "feeling-based" strategies that may help you get started on what you have trouble getting yourself to do: If you are feeling: 1. unsure of where to start-> th...

More often than not, I find that postmodernist thought obscures rather than illuminates. But I also see useful elements in it. Here's my very un-postmodern attempt to "steel man" (i.e., find the value in) ideas related to postmodernism: 1. Narratives Serve Power - powerful groups do tend to have a substantial influence on narratives, beliefs, and what's "normal." Something "obvious" o...

If the Overton Window were not inside of itself, you'd think I was crazy for writing this.Is it just me, or has the Baader-Meinhof effect been popping up all over the place ever since I learned about it?It's hard to justify learning about opportunity costs when there are so many other things you could be doing with that time.I don't think the idea of being Pareto Optimal has made anyone better of...

1. Occamism: the simpler a moral theory is, the more likely it is to be true. Hence (a priori), the most probable two moral theories are that (a) everything is permissible or that (b) nothing is. 2. Majoritarianism: an action is morally right if and only if the majority of conscious beings capable of understanding that action and its consequences think it's right. 3. R...

As far as I can tell, there are some policies that could be implemented in the U.S. that would very likely improve society according to both the values of the left and the right. So why don't these policies get implemented? If I'm right, these represent massive wasted opportunities. I think there are a number of possible reasons why even good, bipartisan policies don't get put into p...