Creating more moments of attention

Creating more moments of attention
July 9, 2024
You obviously only have a certain number of hours in your life - but what's slightly less obvious is that you have a limited number of moments of attention in your life. When you pay attention to one thing, there is an opportunity cost - you could be paying attention to something else, like one of your loved ones, a meaningful project, your source of income, or a hobby you love. When you ge...
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The “Lizardman’s Constant” Causes the “Nonsense Factor:” a hidden source of false conclusions in research

July 5, 2024
The "Lizardman's Constant" is a fascinating idea from Scott Alexander (Astral Codex Ten). Scott argues that approximately 4% of survey responses on polls/surveys are not sincere - hence why 4% of respondents are found to report believing that lizardmen run the Earth and 5% of atheists say they believe in god, etc. I'd like to introduce a related idea that can ruin studies: the "Nonsense Factor...
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Four extremely bad ideas that have been popular

July 5, 2024
Here are four incredibly bad ideas (that are still commonly believed): 1) That people should be judged for, blamed for, or feel shame about the behavior of their ancestors. Of course, if your ancestors did bad things, you should condemn those acts. And if you directly benefit from something bad your family member did, you should consider if you can make amends. But, logically, p...
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How heritable are human traits like personality, height, mental health, physical health, education, religiosity, and conservatism? (h^2 estimates)

June 12, 2024
Here's my attempt to compile the heritabilities (in the narrow sense of h^2) for many different interesting human traits. Before you read this, however, I recommend you read our piece on the Missing Heritability Problem which provides important context for interpreting this information. We'll first look at estimated heritabilities from five categories: body, mental health, physical heal...
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Are happiness and well-being the only things that people value?

Are happiness and well-being the only things that people value?
June 5, 2024
The most common kind of critiques I get of my theory of human intrinsic values are: 1) "But I only care about well-being (in the sense of happiness, pleasure, or lack of suffering) - that's my ONLY intrinsic value." 2) "People may THINK they value other things, but everything that matters bottoms out in well-being." Here's my response: First of all, I want to say that I really app...
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How can big problems get solved?

How can big problems get solved?
May 5, 2024
I think that big problems in the world (like chronic homelessness, loneliness, depression, poverty, underrepresentation of groups, risks from A.I., global warming, etc.) are ridiculously complex - way more complex than the narratives about them suggest. The only approach I know of that I think has a meaningful shot to help solve such huge problems, which you might call “Scientific Entrepreneur...
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How to spot real expertise

How to spot real expertise
April 23, 2024
Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make m...
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Three motivations for believing 

Three motivations for believing 
April 20, 2024
There are three different motivations for belief, and it's important to distinguish between them.  1) Belief because you think something's true. For instance, you may think that the evidence supports the idea that you will eventually find love, or you may feel convinced by logical arguments you've heard in favor of god's existence. 2) Belief because you think it's useful to believe....
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The benefits and soul-crushing downsides of A.I. progress

April 11, 2024
There are many benefits to A.I., such as being able to generate beautiful art, inspiring music, captivating writing, and mesmerizing videos. It democratizes creation (people can now create what’s in their minds), lowers costs (replacing human labor with algorithms), and enables hyper-personalization (works can be made just for you). The benefits are big and important. But there is also somethi...
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