Why do smart people fall for stupid things? Here is what I think is an important part of the answer that almost never gets discussed.
It's easy to look around at the stupid seeming things that other people believe (e.g., people who join harmful cults, get scammed by a con artist, become vocal evangelists for a placebo treatment, or jump on the hype train of some outrageous new bubble) and wonder: "How on earth can they be so dumb?"
The answer, a lot of times, is simply the trust they have...
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belief formation
Conducting Instantaneous Experiments
Have a hypothesis about the world, society, human nature, physics, or anything else that nobody has directly tested before? It might seem like conducting a costly experiment would be required to find out whether it's true. But a lot of the time, you can check your hypothesis easily using what I call an "Instantaneous Experiment."
How to do an Instantaneous Experiment:
Step 1: Think of anything at all about the world that's checkable that is likely to be true if your hypothesis is true...
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Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists
There is an important division between people who want to improve the world that few seem to be aware of. Inspired by Julia Galef's new book (The Scout Mindset), I'll call this division: Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists.
1. Soldier Altruists think it's obvious how to improve the world and that we just need to execute those obvious steps. They see the barriers to a better world as:
(i) not enough people taking action (e.g., due to ignorance, selfishness, or propaganda), and
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