How do we predict high levels of success?

September 12, 2021

Below, I outline 13 approaches to predicting high levels of success with differing levels of complexity, including my own mega model at the bottom. Note: here, I use the term "success" merely in terms of achievement, career success, or high levels of expertise, NOT in terms of happiness, living a good life, morality, having strong social bonds, etc. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be successful in the way this post focuses on. But if you DO want "success" in the sense in...

Is altruism rational?

December 27, 2020

When people learn just a little about game theory, decision theory, economics, or even evolutionary theory, they sometimes come away thinking that altruism is somehow “irrational” or that rational agents are selfish. Here are a number of reasons why altruism is often rational: I. People can value altruism for its own sake: 1. Intrinsic values: as a psychological fact, most humans intrinsically value at least some things as ends (not merely as means to other ends) that are not about...

Many global challenges arise due to collective action problems or incentive misalignment

November 16, 2020

Many of the biggest challenges that we face in society are due to one or both of these types of problems: (A) Collective Action Problems, where many individuals or groups are currently better off taking action X, even though they'd be better off in the long-term if everyone agreed not to take action X. Some of the big challenges with Collective Actions Problems are (i) getting people or groups to agree to stop the behavior in the first place, and then (ii) creating a v...

The three big strategies I see for combating climate change

September 14, 2020

Change my mind: I currently think that there are only three big potential strategies for effectively preventing substantial human-caused climate change in the next 40 years. Climate Strategy 1: Government Collaboration If we collaborated, China, the U.S., India, and Europe could engage in substantial climate emission regulation (e.g., by taxing carbon, using cap-and-trade systems, setting deadlines by which certain industries must be carbon neutral, building cleaner power generation f...

Productive Disagreements – An Interactive Event Format

June 25, 2017

I ran a "Productive Disagreements" event last night, a new interactive format I've been working on where attendees practice structured disagreements on controversial topics in order to learn from each other and get experience accurately modeling other people's perspectives. Here are the materials, in case you want to run an event like this or just learn about the format: Part 1: Brief presentation about why disagreements are so often unproductive 1. You want to "win" more than you want...