Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions

February 13, 2025

Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions for at least two reasons: You can’t reason based on track record in the same way you can with normal predictions. The stakes are extremely high. Being wrong on normal predictions rarely matters as much. Why? Regarding point one, reasoning based on track record: Normally, a type of prediction being wrong again and again will lead you to dismiss that type of prediction. For instance, if every year (for some reason), experts...

Coming to Terms with Mortality

September 27, 2017

Here is a list of ideas that helped me have less fear of my own mortality. I hope that you find some of them useful if you're afraid of dying.You've been dead before: you already know what it's like to be dead (i.e., it feels like nothing, it's a total lack of any experiences). You were dead from the moment of the Big Bang (assuming that's when time started) until some time after your conception. If any of the human religions turn out to be correct, then you may even have a chance of continuing...

Which Risks of Dying Are Worth Taking?

October 16, 2013

First, click here to figure out your chance of dying tomorrow. Is it worth taking a 1 in 100,000 chance of dying , in order to experience the novel thrill of sky diving? Is a 1 in 500,000 chance of death worth it to go bungee jumping? It's hard to know whether these risks are reasonable, because numbers like 100,000 or 500,000 feel so abstract to us. To think more clearly about these numbers, it helps to get our intuitions engaged. We can start by figuring out the daily risk of dying that...