A major (overlooked) reason why smart people fall for stupid things

September 13, 2024

Photo by Elimende Inagella from Unsplash

Why do smart people fall for stupid things? Here is what I think is an important part of the answer that almost never gets discussed. It's easy to look around at the stupid seeming things that other people believe (e.g., people who join harmful cults, get scammed by a con artist, become vocal evangelists for a placebo treatment, or jump on the hype train of some outrageous new bubble) and wonder: "How on earth can they be so dumb?" The answer, a lot of times, is simply the trust they have...

Conducting Instantaneous Experiments

August 24, 2024

Have a hypothesis about the world, society, human nature, physics, or anything else that nobody has directly tested before? It might seem like conducting a costly experiment would be required to find out whether it's true. But a lot of the time, you can check your hypothesis easily using what I call an "Instantaneous Experiment." How to do an Instantaneous Experiment: Step 1: Think of anything at all about the world that's checkable that is likely to be true if your hypothesis is true...

How to spot real expertise

April 23, 2024

Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make matters even more confusing, sometimes the fake experts even have very impressive credentials, and ev...

Three motivations for believing

April 20, 2024

There are three different motivations for belief, and it's important to distinguish between them. 1) Belief because you think something's true. For instance, you may think that the evidence supports the idea that you will eventually find love, or you may feel convinced by logical arguments you've heard in favor of god's existence. 2) Belief because you think it's useful to believe. Regardless of whether you predict something's true, you can predict that believing it will...

These epistemic methods really want you to trust them

November 26, 2020

These epistemic methods really want you to trust them. Each tries to prove itself to you: 1. Tautologies are true by definition, 'cause tautologies are true by definition. 😎 2. Induction worked in the past, so it probably will in the future. 😉 3. If deduction solves your problem, and you want it solved, then you'll want to use deduction! 😊 4. If you thought Bayesianism had 3:1 odds, and you think this sentence is 2x more likely if Bayesianism than if not Bayesianism, ...

Idea-Inducing Questions

August 2, 2020

Struggling to come up with an idea for a blog post? Want to post ideas on social media but can't think of what to write about? Want to come up with interesting topics for an intellectual discussion or meetup? Use my lists of "Idea-Inducing Questions" to generate nearly endless ideas to write about, think about, or discuss! Questions about learning and truth-seeking • Recently learned: what's a powerful idea, concept, or mental model that you've been learning about recently that you...