Has every made-up anecdote already happened?

September 13, 2024

A weird thing about anecdotes: there are so many humans, and each human has so many things happen to them, that for a great many simple stories, you might make up (as long as it is within the bounds of physics/current technology/human capacity, and isn't too specific), something similar has happened to somebody. For instance, I just made up these stories that I've never heard of ever happening: • a young child stealing their mother's car • a dog discovering buried treasure And i...

Conducting Instantaneous Experiments

August 24, 2024

Have a hypothesis about the world, society, human nature, physics, or anything else that nobody has directly tested before? It might seem like conducting a costly experiment would be required to find out whether it's true. But a lot of the time, you can check your hypothesis easily using what I call an "Instantaneous Experiment." How to do an Instantaneous Experiment: Step 1: Think of anything at all about the world that's checkable that is likely to be true if your hypothesis is true...

How can big problems get solved?

May 5, 2024

I think that big problems in the world (like chronic homelessness, loneliness, depression, poverty, underrepresentation of groups, risks from A.I., global warming, etc.) are ridiculously complex - way more complex than the narratives about them suggest. The only approach I know of that I think has a meaningful shot to help solve such huge problems, which you might call “Scientific Entrepreneurship,” combines two methods into one: (1) Rigorous science to deeply understand the causal struct...

How to spot real expertise

April 23, 2024

Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make matters even more confusing, sometimes the fake experts even have very impressive credentials, and ev...

Weird but potentially valuable new roles we could have in our society

November 18, 2020

There are certain roles in society that come with special training, powers, and responsibilities. For instance: doctors (can prescribe medicine), lawyers (client-attorney privilege), judges (can bindingly interpret law), etc. Here's my list of some weird but potentially really valuable roles in society that don't exist but maybe should: Role 1: Truth Teller They wear a special, very noticeable hat. When wearing it, they are not permitted to say anything they know to be untrue (they...

What is the REAL effect of circumcising men?

January 27, 2014

Those who grow up in the U.S. are often surprised to find out that in many European countries almost no men are circumcised. In the U.S., where the majority of men have had the procedure performed on them, it is pretty common to hear people say that foreskin is unclean, ugly, or even unhealthy. On the other hand, Europeans tend to find the idea of circumcision bizarre. "Why would you cut off a healthy part of your body?", they wonder. And "How would you feel about a culture that cut off their ch...