Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions

February 13, 2025

Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions for at least two reasons: You can’t reason based on track record in the same way you can with normal predictions. The stakes are extremely high. Being wrong on normal predictions rarely matters as much. Why? Regarding point one, reasoning based on track record: Normally, a type of prediction being wrong again and again will lead you to dismiss that type of prediction. For instance, if every year (for some reason), experts...

Difficult truths that are part of being human

March 5, 2021

Here's my list of difficult truths that are part of being human. We can: A. Lie to ourselves about them, B. Avoid thinking about them, or C. Try to accept the parts we can't change and change what we can. If you're in camps A or B, don't read this post! Here are Thirteen Difficult Truths: 1. Irrationality - we humans are not rational, despite the fact that most of us want to believe we are. Our beliefs and behaviors are influenced by nearly-invisible social for...