There is a tremendous amount of confusion around what a p-value actually is, despite their widespread use in science. Here is my attempt to explain the concept of p-values concisely and clearly (including why they are useful and what often goes wrong with them).
— What's a p-value? —
If you run a study, then (all else equal, aside from rare edge cases) the lower the p-value, the lower the chance that your results are due to random chance or luck.
More precisely: a p-value is the probab...
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frequentism
The many ways to make inferences
There are a LOT of ways to make inferences. Many more, I think, than is generally realized. And they all have their weaknesses.
You can make inferences using…
(1) Deduction:
As a consequence of the definition of X and Y, if X then Y.
X applies to this case. Therefore Y.
“Plato is a man, and all men are mortal; therefore Plato is mortal.”
“For any number that is an integer, there exists another integer greater than that number. 1,000,000 is an integer. So there exists an in...
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