Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions

February 13, 2025

Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions for at least two reasons: You can’t reason based on track record in the same way you can with normal predictions. The stakes are extremely high. Being wrong on normal predictions rarely matters as much. Why? Regarding point one, reasoning based on track record: Normally, a type of prediction being wrong again and again will lead you to dismiss that type of prediction. For instance, if every year (for some reason), experts...

Understanding the Landscape of Viewpoints on the Risks and Benefits of AI

July 27, 2024

I've seen seven main viewpoints on AI and the future from those who spend a lot of time thinking about it: (1) Superintelligence Doomers - they believe we are likely to build AI that's superintelligent (i.e., that surpasses human intelligence in all respects) and that once we do, it will kill or enslave humanity. See: Eliezer Yudkowsky "The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made of atoms which it can use for something else." (2) AI Corrosionists - t...

The many forms of belief

October 11, 2020

What does it mean to believe? We often say things like "I believe..." and "they think that..." But what do we really mean by a "belief"? It's notoriously tricky to define. For starters, we sometimes think of beliefs in binaries (true vs. false) and other times in probabilities (a 90% chance of coming true). We sometimes would be willing to bet on our beliefs ("I'll bet you $100 that New York City is not the capital of New York State"), and other times we wouldn't be willing to bet (e.g...

Obvious Defaults Perform The Best

June 10, 2017

It's surprising how often, in highly complex domains where we are trying to figure out what to do, an obvious or simple default can perform extremely well. This is sometimes even true when the defaults are clearly not optimal. Here are simple defaults in four complex domains that can be surprisingly hard to outperform: 1. Charity: give money to the poorest non-drug addicted people you can find, and let them do whatever they want with the money. GiveWell, which has spent yea...