risk

Misjudging Repeated Risk

July 17, 2017
Some thoughts on how we may massively misjudge the weightiness of decisions that involve doing a risky thing many times: There's a huge difference between riding on the back of a motorcycle once, and buying a motorcycle to ride every weekend, or between buying a cookie and buying a box of 25 cookies, or between taking a boxing lesson once and sparring regularly. Unfortunately, our minds don't necessarily give this difference between doing something one time and doing something T times app...
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Which Risks of Dying Are Worth Taking?

October 16, 2013
First, click here to figure out your chance of dying tomorrow. Is it worth taking a 1 in 100,000 chance of dying , in order to experience the novel thrill of sky diving? Is a 1 in 500,000 chance of death worth it to go bungee jumping? It's hard to know whether these risks are reasonable, because numbers like 100,000 or 500,000 feel so abstract to us. To think more clearly about these numbers, it helps to get our intuitions engaged. We can start by figuring out the daily risk of dying that...
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